Ampleforth- Forgotten shitcoin or a gem yet to moon?
This report is not meant as financial advice and please do your own research and take responsibility for your own trades. This report is meant to update you regarding the markets so that you can make informed decisions.
AMPL is a rebasing currency aimed at replacing our current monetary system
The idea came from Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek which wanted to try the idea of elastic supply currency that will expand or contract automatically with the economy’s needs. Which makes it an almost perfect currency but they didn’t have the technology to do it at that time. This is a school of thought from Austrian economics in contrast to the Keynesian economics that we currently have.
I’ll explain to you why it has the potential to make money and why it is an alpha. Below is the whole story of my experience trading AMPL, you don’t have to read it but its good for beginners to have more context when I explain why it is an alpha.
The AMPL’s target price is set at 2019’s USD value. Currently is in the range of 0.96–1.06 USD but it will be adjusted accordingly to inflation of the USD.
How Rebase works
- AMPL price is above 1.07$, the protocol automatically calculates how much new tokens to be released based on your market share in the network based on an algorithm. (Positive rebase)
- The reason being is that people with free tokens will start to sell them and the price will drop back down towards the target price.
- The reverse is true, when the price is below 0.97, the protocol automatically calculates how much tokens to be subtracted based on your market share in the network based on an algorithm. (Negative rebase)
Learnings from trading AMPL
However, due to the greed nature of humans, the system didn’t work out as plan and is very susceptible to whale manipulation especially when its extremely small in market cap now.
In its own bull run in august 2020, when people got more tokens from positive rebase, instead of selling it, they see it as valuable and started buying more instead. Causing the positive rebase mechanism to fail and the price shooting up instead. With new money flowing in and this resembling a Ponzi. I was in that run and you really had to be there to feel the Greed. We were expecting to be millionaires in a few weeks.
It was an awesome feeling waking up at 10 am daily (when the rebase happens) and seeing the price shoot up instead. So you’re gaining 20% positive rebase + few cents depending on the price movement, the daily ROI was insane. We all knew it was a bubble but we didn’t expect it to burst so fast in just 2 weeks.
The price then decided to crash when one of the whale wallets unlock and they market sold, crashing the bubble all the way down to 70 cents. Many people were burnt and Lambo dreams were broken. ( I was down 50% at that point from being up 280%)
While people look away I decided to investigate the whole ecosystem and found out that whales unlock happens monthly near the end of the month and an uptrend starts 1 week before or 1 week after.
Screenshot of the trades I did as well as the bubble in July, wallet unlock are the vertical blue lines.
I proceeded to sell my stack in JULY after the crash as the daily negative rebase was extremely painful and if I time it right and enter at 1 week before the big move or even 1 day before I could have saved myself a lot of USD and AMPL.
The funny thing about AMPL is that although it's supposed to be bought back up to $1 after negative rebases, normal people couldn’t take the pain of losing money daily and this led to multiple instances of when AMPL stayed at 60c to 70c range for a few long weeks. I would say it was too complicated for people to understand and it didn’t work as expected.
So my new strategy back then was to load 1 week before the pump and slowly DCA in to minimize my negative rebases and proceeded to sell the top slowly as the pump commenced. There was also some confluence with the top resistant trend line but it wasn’t there during my first try at swinging AMPL in August. The pump eventually hit $2.40 before reversing which is a 280% gain but I made about 150% out while derisking my trade.
Yes I could have made much more by selling the top but lets be honest, how many people can do that? No one has an oracle and you should just sell when you feel its good. This 1 trade allowed me to cover my losses with even extra from this run.
I went ahead to try for a second run with more capital this time and exited when I saw the lack of strength at the resistant line. It only went up till 1.10 which was about a 80% pump, i manage to get out with about 40% gains, factoring in all the negative rebase I had to take. This pump was cut short partly because Bitcoin was the alpha the time and interest in altscoin was dropping thus my reason for selling a large chunk at $1.
I went ahead to try for a 3rd run when the altmarkets had more interest with more capital this time and exit when I saw the lack of strength at the resistant line. It only went up till 1.30 which was about a 100% pump, i manage to get out with about 50% gains, factoring in all the negative rebase I had to take. This pump was cut short partly due to the Kucoin hack which made the exchange lockdown deposits and withdrawals of AMPL( It is the main centralized exchange you use to get AMPL unless you’re doing DEFI). There was a 20% premium on FTX and Uniswap outside of kucoin and the difference cannot be arbitraged like how a usual market does due to the lockdown.
Lessons from my experience
- Whales are a crucial part of AMPL, not just AMPL but other markets as well and by factoring in their tendencies, it has helped me be on the right side of the trade and increases my hit rate significantly. Enough from being in a loss to profits in this instance.
- Not be greedy and always take profits, even for Bitcoin remember to take profits as you’ll never know when the top is in. Just set a target and take secure regular profits. There is always a chance to buy dips.
- Sell and buy in batches, never 100% in, Many cases when you buy expecting a pump but it always drops back, that is a good time to average down your bags which will increase your portfolio’s overall profits. The reverse is true for selling, it can go up as much as it wants. Example being Bitcoin hitting 19k just this morning which no one expected.
- Never FOMO OR FUD into positions
- If you want to ape, make sure you are early or have an edge in reading that market compared to other market participants if you don’t, you’re better off just holding BTC or not even trading.
Why do I think AMPL is an alpha?
The use case for AMPL is to an asset that has a negative correlation to bitcoin and the entire crypto market as a whole. Including AMPL in a basket of assets will increase your risk-adjusted returns for any portfolio but many people do not build portfolios this way.
We expect many investors to eventually adopt AMPL into their portfolio, similar to how people see USD/USDT as a hedge against crypto price movements but a better inflation-free version.
Kucoin will eventually reopen its AMPL withdrawals and deposit in 22nd Nov, one of the prerequisites of the pump.
The hypothesis for the next AMPL pump will be purely due to the whales movement. As we know they are everywhere and especially prevalent in crypto due to its unregulated nature. This is what allows us to ride the wave and profit.
It takes a massive amount of money to manipulate any asset but generally the smaller the market cap, the easier it is to move it.
As a whale, your most important job is to move markets in your favour and make more money, selling on parabolic tops on new newbie FOMO volume that is coming in. For Ethereum, LINK and other smaller crypto assets, the parabolic cycles take months and a large chunk of money to even do. But for AMPL, due to its rebase nature and the small market cap which leads to higher volatility, whale manipulation is way more profitable.
Let’s imagine you’re a whale, with min amount of cash, you can pump AMPL to $2, get a positive 20% rebase on top of the price appreciation you had from loading cheap (under a dollar).
- You can time the top and bottom because you are a whale, imagine putting in 1 million at the bottom and getting 1 million AMPLs and then selling at $2 with a few days of positive rebase. Conservative estimations of your profits will be at least 2.8 million not counting the money you used to move the market. AND THIS IS IN A MATTER OF DAYS.
- You can see why it is easier than market-moving BTC & other altcoins.
- What makes it more explosive it's because of the crypto ranking website’s way of showing top gainers of the day at the sidebar. With AMPL’s volatility, it is extremely easy to pump it so its the first on the list, which makes more normies flood in with their Lambo dreams. Its a matter of time before bigger whales step in and start playing this on a bigger scale and we’re just getting started.
- Of course, this was only working due to the large investor unlocks monthly but we’re unsure if this will happen in the following months. Thus I’ll be waiting for at least a few more monthly end pumps coming. From my knowledge, the monthly whale unlock have ended and might not have a monthly pump anymore. I’ll update this article with more information as I get them.
Prerequisites for the next pump:
- Kucoin open deposit (soon)
- Alt markets heating up, check out my analysis of bitcoin and crypto markets for Q4 and Q1 here.
- Signs of whales activity in the price charts of AMPL.
AMPL has already started moving. My position entered in 25th Nov is already up 40% with the rebase.
For people who don’t know Binance already has AMPL page ready. Just waiting for it to be live. was expecting after Kucoin opens withdrawals. Let's sit and wait. (website is currently down but I did verify on that night and it was legit but just not activated yet)
I’ve confirmed from some sources that there are not more whale wallet unlocks thus the pump might not be as massive as before sadly. But you still can profit via just small movement in price( AMPL is very volatile) stacking with the 1–2% positive rebases daily. You can just sell the rebase daily if you’re super risk-averse. I’ve noticed some sights of new whales loading and I’ll further update with confirmation in the future. I’ll be updating on my telegram chat my progress on the new AMPL trade thus join my group here.
I’ve sold me entire positions at 1.55 on 4/12/20 to lock in my 60% profits due to BTC looking weak. On hindsight, it was a pretty good trade. Current prices are at $1.22 which means I avoided a drop of 21%. BTC continues to look weak but I’ll be finding chances to get in to swing AMPL again soon. You can follow me on my telegram channel here for live updates on trades as well as the markets here.
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Binance seems to be prepping for its first Rebase token listing. After some research, I doubt BASED, BASE and YAM are going to make it. Making AMPL one of the most probable candidates due to their non-anonymous team with many partnerships with big names like compound and balancer. With AMPL prices at 1.27 now, I’ll be scaling in to wait for Binance to drop the news. This has the potential for AMPL to redo its July run again.
I’ve sold all my AMPL positions long ago and currently focusing on a new algo stablecoin called Bdollar. check out the article on it coming out soon at my home page
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