Selling the BTC Top in this market cycle. How? A Comprehensive Guide
This report is not meant as financial advice and please do your own research and take responsibility for your own trades. This report is meant to update you regarding the markets so that you can make informed decisions.
NOTE: The following article is more for advanced crypto traders. If you are a beginner check out my beginner series here.
We already have confirmation for BTC that we are in a bull market, the key question is when to add to your long term bags and when do you exit? We attempt to find a few possible scenarios for tops and how do we take profits. I’ll address good indicators to buy in a future article.
The longer we take to the top, the higher the BTC top will be.
I used the BTC regression band indicator from intotheCryptoverse as well as add some other theories to try to predict the top.
A: Bull market cycle top based on the same time taken(115 weeks) in 2017 from bottom to top starting from 2018 bottom. (25 June 2021, $75,000 target)
B: Bull market cycle top based on the same time taken(40 weeks) in 2017 took from breaking previous ATH to top. (6 Sep 2021, $85,000 target)
C: Bob Loukas’s 4-year cycle which predicts BTC works in a 4-year cycle from bottom to bottom (Feb 2022, $120,000 target)
D: Bull market cycle top based on the same time taken (115 weeks) in 2017 from bottom to top starting from 2020 bottom. (25 June 2021, $100,000 target)
D: Stock to flow model (S2F), base on statistics of BTC’s price movement and project the future price. ( 31 May 2022 to 2024, $120,000 target and above), this model also predicts a 1 million BTC in 2024–2027
E: Lengthening Cycle Theory by Cryptoverse and @davethewave( 31 July 2022 and beyond, $120,000 target and above)
Very good video here comparing Lengthening cycle theory with the stock to flow model, if you’re interested in more nerdy details.
I’m more inclined to the Bob Loukas 4 year cycle, stock to flow model as well as the lengthening cycle being more probable as the other tops do not hold up well without much evidence. However, at this point, we do not know which is happening as we need price action to mature further to tell.
Your best bet is to prepare for both by loading now, selling your capital with some profits during Bob Loukas’s cycle top and letting the rest ride for the Stock to Flow or Lengthening cycle top ($120,000 to $1 million target).
Although this might be bad news for most people as you want your gains asap, however, I would argue that a lengthening cycle is actually good for you as you can dollar cost average all your positions for a longer period of time which allows you to get higher overall gains in the future.
The good news is that alts tend to move more and have its own internal faster cycle compared to BTC and if you are into quicker gains, check out altcoins instead.
For reference, LINK outperformed BTC by a huge margin this year and many other altcoins as well. LINK did a 744% returns this year while BTC did 514% from this year’s lows at current prices. Alts and LINK also have much more space to move in the coming months and I’m expecting LINK and alts to outperform BTC in 2021.
The reason I’m still bullish on alts is due to BTC dominance facing an extremely huge resistance and I don’t think we will break it this round. BTC is also very overbought at this point, although a breakdown would not be surprising, I’m expecting it to stay range-bound for at least a few weeks for alts to catch up. Thus, I’m currently loading alts instead of BTC due to the higher risk to reward.
Note, we might get a beating for Alts if BTC continues to $28,000 but next year, Alts will move so much that it outperforms BTC. Thus, just stack alts and chill and forget about it until the bubble really heats up next year.
To tell when alt season starts you need to look at BTC dominance as well as if ETH/BTC has bottomed and started moving upwards.
I see the blue scenario playing out due to is being a very strong support from the previous triangle, together with how overbought BTC is and oversold alts are. ETH/BTC is also forming a descending wedge that is a bullish formation.
Q1 is also typically a good time to get into altcoins. However, take note we might get a drop-down if BTC starts mooning again (yellow scenario), so have spare cash to load this dip if it presents itself. Either way, you’ll be golden next year so don’t worry about your current USD value as we’re looking at future USD value.
We also have the Halloween effect in our favour, where most people have the free time to set up their crypto accounts during Christmas dinner after their niece and grandsons tell them how much money they are making from Crypto. Be prepared for DA MOON.
BTC and alts are all looking fantastic for 2021. There is no market like crypto giving this kind of returns except if you’re trading tech stocks or TESLA. If you’re more risk-taking like me, this is the time to prep your altcoin bags for 2021. Else, just stack BTC and wait for 1–3 years and you’ll be golden.
Stack sats, alts and chill. Q1 2021 will be glorious.
That’s all for now, do hit me up in the comments or on Twitter if you have any heart-burning questions. Please share this to your friends if you find it useful.
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